A new pattern has emerged in the crypto market that displays similar characteristics to the situation seen in the 2024 correction period. Market speculation can be evaluated through the percentage of Bitcoin held for less than 1 week to 1 month periods, which currently demonstrates possible market overheating signs.
Crypto Market, Similar to the 2024 Correction
“Given that this ratio has now reached the yellow-box region, which was the bottom of the 2024 correction period, it seems likely that the current market will follow a similar path as the 2024 correction.” – By @DanCoinInvestor pic.twitter.com/YGNZxQnUXj
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 18, 2025
Price drops occur with intensified intensity in speculative markets based on the extent of speculative activity. These markets tend to experience stronger price declines when such markets become more speculative.
When speculative market presence reduces across the board, the resulting price correction becomes more orderly. Bitcoin holder behavior and market turning points become easier to forecast through this tracking method that identifies short-term bitcoin ownership durations.
Short-Term Holder Ratio: A Predictable Crypto Market Cycle
During periods of Bitcoin price increases, there is typically a rise in the number of short-term holders in the market. An increase in short-term market participation frequently triggers price destabilization at mass market levels that tends to result in a strong market downturn. Throughout the 2024 correction period, the price volatility followed a specific pattern where prices experienced increases, then speculative spikes, before market value decreased.
The present crypto market cycle demonstrates two instances of periodic price oscillation that repeat the 2024 speculative pattern. The present analysis reveals that the ratio currently exists within the yellow-box part of the chart, which corresponds to the earliest 2024 correction stages.
Speculative energy appeared to escape from the market, which created a better situation for stability in market behavior.
Macro Factors Could Fuel 2025 Recovery
Current crypto market data shows improvement since the market requires further time to recover and solidify its structure. Market stability, together with reduced speculation, indicates rising optimism that the 2025 price trend will trend positively as economic uncertainties lessen.
Short-term investors should exercise due caution, while potential long-term investors may discover advantageous conditions if the market fulfills its historical trajectory.
The upcoming market movement will rely heavily on major developments and investor emotions that could initiate the next upward phase.