As October nears its end, Bitcoin (BTC) has finally found the momentum expected from ‘Uptober’ as it first broke the protracted downtrend. The flagship cryptocurrency rallied from October 10 lows under $60,000 to a relatively stable level near $68,000 and, in the last 24 hours, surged above $71,000.
Specifically, having managed a 4.22% rise to $71,184 during the last day of trading, Bitcoin is, at press time, 8.61% in the green in the 30-day time frame and has climbed 65.67% from where it stood at the start of 2024.
Still, the world’s premier cryptocurrency has yet to reclaim the March – and all-time – highs above $73,000, and there is concern whether it’ll make it given the considerable volatility expected in the leadup to and aftermath of the U.S. presidential elections.
Considering this historical data and the heightened uncertainty surrounding the 2024 U.S. election, Finbold consulted multiple prominent finance experts about what might happen to BTC in November and beyond.
| Year | Bitcoin Election Reaction | Price Change |
| 2012 | No major price shifts tied to the election | – |
| 2016 | Spiked by 3.8% after Trump’s victory | +3.8% |
| 2020 | Surged dramatically after Election Day due to global economic instability and broader adoption | +46% |
Ben Sporn CEO of Joy Wallet
Ben Sporn, the CEO of Joy Wallet, provided an overwhelmingly optimistic assessment of Bitcoin’s performance in the near future while emphasizing what he calls a ‘potential bull flag breakout around the 2024 election.’
According to Sporn, an interesting setup is emerging in 2024. On the one hand, the April halving ‘is still driving market optimism,’ while both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have signaled their potential administrations would be receptive to cryptocurrencies.
Ultimately, the CEO of Joy Wallet estimated that the halving, election, and the ‘potential breakout’ could prove sufficient to drive BTC to $80,000, provided it crosses above key resistances around November 5.
Jordan Figueredo, a marketing consultant for Pelicoin
Jordan Figueredo, a marketing consultant for Pelicoin, concluded that the 2024 U.S. presidential election is likely to bode well for Bitcoin, no matter the victor.
For the market dynamics in the wake of a possible Trump victory, the consultant turned to history and noted that, much like BTC rallied after the 2016 results were announced, the world’s premier cryptocurrency would most likely surge on the news of a new Republican administration.
On the other hand, Figueredo explained he thinks a Harris win ‘could push Bitcoin higher if the finance sector becomes concerned.’
Finally, he added that ‘a fluctuation of $35,000 to $35,000 after the election, with some short-term volatility as the market adjusts,’ should be expected in early November.’
Andrew Lokenauth, the founder of TheFinanceNewsletter.com
Andrew Lokenauth, the founder of TheFinanceNewsletter.com and a financial and money expert, provided a detailed breakdown of the likely scenarios for Bitcoin ahead of and after the election.
Broadly speaking, the money expert forecasted that the ‘Uptober’ momentum would likely persist into early November, but the next President of the United States would probably determine the subsequent direction.
Lokenauth assessed a Trump victory as immediately positive for BTC and set the price target for the coin between $65,000 and $72,000 under such circumstances as the Republican candidate is known for his crypto-friendly stance.
Conversely, he assessed a Harris victory as likely to trigger a dip to between $58,000 and $63,000 as the Democratic candidate might prove concerning to investors due to the party’s history of putting regulatory pressure on the sector.
Simultaneously, he estimated that the post-election volatility spike would likely reach a high in the first 48-72 hours and calm down within a week, probably leading ‘smart money’ to move to the sidelines temporarily.
Finally, Lokenauth also warned investors to monitor potential election result delays, civil unrest, general global reactions to the outcome in the financial markets, and possible regulatory announcements during the period of heightened volatility, as these could significantly impact the price action.
Michael Schmied, the senior financial analyst at Kredite Schweiz
Michael Schmied, the senior financial analyst at Kredite Schweiz, emphasized the expected volatility in the final days ahead of the election, with the general forecast being a situation in which ‘where Bitcoin cools off one moment but jumps back up the next as traders test the waters.’
The analyst also opined that traders are likely to hedge their bets in this period of wild swings but that BTC might benefit from its reputation as a ‘safe haven’ and see notable spikes.
Finally, Schmied concluded that ‘Uptober’ 2024 provided Bitcoin with solid footing, meaning that the cryptocurrency will likely remain within a similar range no matter who wins the presidency.
Still, the analyst forecasted that a Trump reelection could lead to more volatility and a Harris victory could lead to greater stability as her stance might ‘feel safer to many.’
Given the overall bullish tone, the price target range came as a surprise as Schmied estimated that Bitcoin could collapse up to 48% to the likely range between $36,500 and $44,000.
Featured image:
Khmeliov, Aleksandr. Virtual cryptocurrency concept. Digital Image. Shutterstock, May 4, 2022. Date accessed: October 29, 2024.