Raoul Pal, an accomplished trader and founder of Real Vision, reveals that Bitcoin dominance has reached its cycle top amid a persistent uptrend.
The market veteran disclosed this in a commentary on X today, suggesting that technical signals, specifically DeMark tops, indicate there could be a potential turning point for Bitcoin’s market share, which has seen a steady climb since December 2024.
DeMark Indicators Show Bitcoin Dominance Top
Notably, Pal cited DeMark Indicators, developed by industry legend Tom DeMark, as the tools indicating this market top. These tools identify reversals by pointing out overextended price trends.
In this case, Pal noted that daily, weekly, and monthly DeMark tops have aligned for Bitcoin dominance, suggesting that its upward trajectory may be nearing exhaustion. While he failed to call out the specific DeMark indicators, popular ones such as the TD Sequential could have been useful for identifying this top.
He noted that despite the recent growth in Bitcoin dominance, the current peak falls short of the 2021 high of 73.63%, which itself was below the 2017 peak, indicating a long-term weakening trend in Bitcoin’s market grip.
Currently, Bitcoin dominance, which sits at 64.8% at press time, shows Bitcoin’s resilience amid a broader market lull. While Bitcoin has gained 6.6% year-to-date in 2025, currently trading at $99,458 as it approaches the $100,000 milestone, the altcoin market has struggled to catch up.
The TOTAL2 index, which tracks the crypto market excluding Bitcoin, has declined by 19.67% this year, dropping from $1.34 trillion to $1.07 trillion. This disparity has bolstered the steady climb for Bitcoin, now looking to mark a sixth consecutive month of gains in May 2025.
What’s Next: The Banana Zone’s Second Phase
However, Pal’s prediction suggests that the tide may soon turn in favor of altcoins. Pal introduced the “Banana Zone” to describe what he believes comes next.
This term, coined by Pal himself, refers to a phase in the crypto market cycle where prices generally explode, creating a parabolic, banana-shaped price curve on charts. He divides it into three phases, with the first phase representing the initial breakout for all assets, which occurred in November 2024.
Yes, we are still in the Banana Zone… 🍌🍌🍌
Banana Zone Phase 1 was the break out last year, now the consolidation (like the 2016/17 consolidation after phase 1). This won’t last long..
Next up Banana Zone Phase 2 – The “Banana Singularity” (Alts szn) when everything goes up…
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) January 10, 2025
Nonetheless, the second phase involves the “Banana Singularity” or altcoin season and involves a period when altcoins experience more uptrend after consolidating, outpacing Bitcoin as investors seek higher returns in riskier assets. This second phase typically follows a peak in Bitcoin dominance, as capital rotates into altcoins.
Other Analysts See Bitcoin Dominance Dropping Soon
Besides Pal, other analysts believe Bitcoin dominance is on track for a correction. For instance, Merlijn the Trader suggested today that the altcoin season has observed a trigger. According to him, the dominance of the Bitcoin season is “cracking,” arguing that those who do not position themselves for this shift will become exit liquidity.
ALTCOIN SEASON SIGNAL JUST TRIGGERED
They laughed while it bled.
Now the index just snapped a multi-month downtrend.
Bitcoin season dominance is cracking.If you’re not positioned now, you’ll be exit liquidity later.
Alts are loading.You either lead or get left. pic.twitter.com/jxx9FA5tbq
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) May 8, 2025
In addition, market analyst Crypto Goos noted that Bitcoin dominance might be breaking down soon, identifying a rising wedge structure that has persisted since 2023. Data suggests BTC.D has reached the peak of this wedge, and a breakdown is imminent.
Bitcoin Dominance in Rising Wedge | Crypto Goos
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